The nature of thought

Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality.  If you are equally good at explaining any outcome, you have zero knowledge.


Logic is equally valid in all universes, and hence cannot tell you which of those universes you are in. Applying logic does not give you new information, it merely aligns your decisions better to the information you already have, by either reducing bias or increasing the efficiency of your estimators.

It is good to distinguish when you are getting new information and when you are processing existing information better, because knowing explicitly how the validity of your ideas flows allows you to make corrections faster and easier.

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